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Adams
Forecasts
High Speed
Internet to 2012
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The biggest connectivity companies in
each sector will be keepers of the keys to what may prove to be
the next big consumer media marketplace. This report takes a
close look at the
strategic direction being taken by the backers of each of the
key broadband technologies, both wired and wireless, and
projects the number of homes expected to adopt each form of
broadband connectivity in the decade ahead.
How many homes can really take advantage
of broadband connections to enjoy a decent Internet media
experience today? How many in two years? In ten? What
will be the future mix between cable modem, DSL and other
technologies?
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The
Direct Connection to the Media Consumer
The number of broadband homes in the U.S. grew nearly 60% in
2002, an even bigger percentage gain than
DVD households saw. And like DVD, broadband networks have
touched off a media consumption frenzy,
although very little incremental revenue is being generated
for rights holders since most media delivery over
the Internet today is illegal.
That is about to change, though, with film studios launching
their Movielink service and the legitimate music
delivery sites revamping to make their offerings more
attractive to consumers.
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The
answers are in Adams Forecasts: High Speed
Internet to 2012 from Adams
Media Research, the industry analysts with a decade-long
record for accurately predicting the future of emerging
digital media technologies and markets. Available April 1,
it’s the “state-of-the-art” projection of the future of
broadband connectivity.
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Adams
Forecasts:
· Concise
analysis of key trends: past, present, and future
·
Detailed
tracking of Cable Modem, DSL and Satellite Access household
growth
· AMR’s
proprietary economic model of High Speed Access: from 1997 with
projections to 2012 (see details below)
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High Speed Internet Forecast--Print
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High Speed Internet Forecast--Print
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with electronic Model $550
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Data Points from AMR Internet Access Model:
1997-2012:
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Household
Data
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U.S.
Population |
U.S.
Households |
Year
End PC Homes |
Total U.S. User
Universe (home and Work) |
Active U.S. User
Universe (home
and work) |
Dial-Up Access: |
Dial-Up Subscriptions |
Multi-Subscription
Homes |
Year-End Dial-Up Access Homes |
Average Monthly Dial-Up Fee |
Dial-Up
Revenue |
% Change |
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Wired
High-Speed Access: |
Year-End Cable Modem Homes |
Average Cable Modem Homes |
Average Monthly Cable Modem
Fee |
Residential Cable Modem
Revenue |
%
Change |
Year-end
DSL Homes |
Average
DSL Homes |
Average
Monthly DSL Fee |
Residential DSL Service Revenue |
%
Change |
Avg.
VDSL Homes |
VDSL
Fee. |
VDSL
Revenue |
%
Change |
Total
Wired High Speed Homes |
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Wireless
High-Speed Access: |
YE
Satellite Access Homes |
Average
Satellite Access Homes |
Average Monthly Satellite Fee
|
Satellite Access Revenue |
%
Change |
YE Residential Fixed Wireless Homes |
Average Fixed Wireless Homes |
Average Fixed Wireless Monthly Fee |
Fixed
Wireless Revenue |
YE
High Speed Homes |
YE
Internet Access Homes |
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